Back in April 2021, I gave a talk for the PACE series called “Future Now” – exploring where technology and business were heading after the massive disruption of 2020-2021.
This was a weird moment in time. We were about a year into the pandemic. Remote work had gone from niche to default overnight. E-commerce had accelerated by years in months. Everyone was asking: what changes are permanent, and what snaps back?
So yeh. Let me share what I was thinking about then, and what actually happened since.
The Context: April 2021
To understand this talk, you need to remember where we were:
The pandemic had forced massive, sudden changes. Companies that resisted remote work for years suddenly had entire workforces at home. Brick-and-mortar retailers either got online fast or died. Video calls replaced business travel. Digital transformation that was supposed to take 5 years happened in 5 months.
Cryptocurrency was having another bull run. Bitcoin hit $60k for the first time. NFTs exploded into mainstream consciousness (Beeple’s $69M Christie’s sale was March 2021). Everyone was trying to understand Web3.
AI progress was accelerating but not yet mainstream. GPT-3 existed but ChatGPT was still 18 months away. DALL-E had just been announced. Most people still thought of AI as science fiction.
E-commerce growth was insane. Shopify merchants did $5.1B in sales on Black Friday 2020 (up 76% from 2019). Every physical business was scrambling to get online.
The question everyone had: what does the future look like now?
Key Themes From the Talk
1. Remote Work Isn’t Going Away
By April 2021, this was already clear – but many executives were still convinced everyone would return to offices full-time.
I argued that remote work was now proven at scale. The companies that embraced it would have access to global talent. The ones that fought it would lose their best people to more flexible competitors.
What I got right: Remote/hybrid work is now standard in tech and knowledge work. Companies that forced full return-to-office saw significant attrition.
What I missed: The “return to office” battles would drag on for years. Many large companies are still fighting this fight in 2025. I underestimated how much corporate leadership hated losing control.
2. Digital Transformation Is Now Table Stakes
Before the pandemic, digital transformation was a competitive advantage. After 2020, it became a survival requirement.
Every business needed:
- E-commerce presence
- Digital payment capabilities
- Cloud infrastructure
- Remote collaboration tools
- Online customer service
- Digital marketing competency
The companies that already had these survived. The ones that didn’t either scrambled to catch up or closed.
What I got right: Digital capabilities are now baseline expectations. Even traditional businesses operate digitally-first.
What I missed: How much the digital divide would widen. Small businesses without technical expertise or capital struggled massively while tech-savvy competitors thrived.
3. E-commerce Acceleration Is Permanent
Online shopping had been growing steadily for years. The pandemic compressed 5-10 years of growth into months.
I predicted that while growth rates would slow from pandemic peaks, the baseline had permanently shifted. People who’d never shopped online before had been forced to learn. They weren’t going back entirely.
What I got right: E-commerce’s share of retail stayed elevated. The habits formed during lockdowns stuck.
What I missed: The “retail apocalypse” narrative was overblown. Physical retail adapted and survived better than expected. The future is omnichannel, not purely digital.
4. Crypto & Web3 Were Getting Real
By April 2021, cryptocurrency had moved beyond just Bitcoin. DeFi was enabling actual financial applications. NFTs proved digital ownership and scarcity. Major institutions were taking it seriously.
I talked about:
- Payments: Cryptocurrency enabling cheaper, faster international transactions
- Digital ownership: NFTs proving scarcity and authenticity for digital goods
- Decentralization: Web3 protocols reducing dependence on platform gatekeepers
- Financial inclusion: Crypto providing banking services to the unbanked
What I got right: Web3 infrastructure matured significantly. Major companies integrated crypto payments. NFT technology found legitimate uses beyond jpeg speculation.
What I missed: The absolutely brutal 2022 crash that was coming. FTX fraud. Terra/Luna collapse. NFT market crash. The “crypto winter” would set the space back years in mainstream adoption.
5. Automation & AI Were Accelerating
I talked about how automation would continue replacing repetitive work, and how AI capabilities were advancing faster than most people realized.
This was pre-ChatGPT. Most people still thought of AI as sci-fi or narrow applications. But the writing was on the wall – models were getting dramatically more capable.
What I got right: AI exploded into mainstream use faster than almost anyone predicted. By late 2022, ChatGPT would prove AI could be genuinely useful for knowledge work.
What I missed: How fast this would happen. I thought we had 5+ years before AI became a major workplace tool. We had 18 months.
The Big Question: Adapt or Die?
The core message of the talk was simple: the changes forced by 2020-2021 aren’t temporary. Businesses need to adapt to new realities or get left behind.
This sounds obvious now. In April 2021, many businesses were still in denial, waiting for “normal” to return.
The businesses that succeeded:
- Embraced remote/flexible work
- Invested in digital capabilities
- Experimented with new technologies
- Adapted business models to new customer behaviors
- Moved fast and iterated
The businesses that struggled:
- Waited for things to go back to how they were
- Fought against remote work
- Underinvested in technology
- Stuck to old business models
- Moved slowly and cautiously
What I Would Say Differently Now
Looking back from 2025 with the benefit of hindsight:
I was too optimistic about crypto short-term, but maybe not long-term: The 2022 crash and fraud scandals massively set back mainstream adoption. But the underlying technology keeps maturing. We’ll see.
I underestimated AI’s near-term impact: ChatGPT launching in November 2022 changed everything faster than I expected. By 2025, AI is integrated into almost every software tool. It’s transformational.
I was right about remote work but wrong about the timeline: Remote/hybrid is now standard, but the transition took longer and was messier than I expected. Lots of companies are still fighting about it.
I overestimated how quickly businesses would adapt: Many companies are still doing “digital transformation” projects in 2025 that they should have completed in 2020-2021. Organizational change is slow.
Looking Forward From Here
If I were giving this talk in 2025 instead of 2021, here’s what I’d focus on:
AI is the new default: Every tool will have AI capabilities. Every job will change. The people who learn to work with AI effectively will have massive advantages.
Decentralization (maybe): Web3 might finally deliver on its promises, or it might stay niche. The technology keeps maturing even as hype cycles come and go.
Climate tech is critical: The intersection of technology and climate change will define business opportunities and challenges. Can’t ignore it.
Synthetic media is everywhere: AI-generated text, images, video, voice – all of it is good enough to fool people. Trust and authenticity become premium.
Privacy and data ownership matter: People are getting wise to surveillance capitalism. The companies that respect privacy will win long-term.
Global competition intensifies: Remote work means competing with talent everywhere. AI means competing with software. You need to be better, faster, or more specialized.
What I Learned
Giving “future trends” talks is humbling. You will get things wrong. Timing is nearly impossible to predict. The biggest changes often come from places you didn’t anticipate.
But here’s what I got right, and what still holds:
Change is accelerating: Technology development, business model innovation, social changes – all of it is happening faster. Companies must build adaptability into their DNA.
Digital competency is baseline: You can’t opt out of the digital economy. Every business is now a technology business to some degree.
Human skills matter more: As automation and AI handle routine tasks, uniquely human capabilities – creativity, strategic thinking, relationship building, ethics, judgment – become more valuable.
Flexibility is competitive advantage: Organizations that can adapt quickly, try new things, pivot when needed – they win. Rigid, slow-moving organizations lose.
The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.
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Original Talk: PACE Series “Future Now”, April 20, 2021
Video: Watch on YouTube
Context: Recorded during pandemic lockdowns, reflecting on how 2020 changed business and technology
Find me: Contact form, @divydovy most places
Looking Back from 2025
Writing this retrospective 4 years after the original talk is fascinating. Some predictions held up remarkably well. Others were wildly off on timing or direction.
The lesson? Direction is easier to predict than speed. We knew remote work, e-commerce, AI, crypto were all important trends. But predicting exactly when they’d mainstream, what the adoption curves would look like, what the obstacles would be – that’s nearly impossible.
The businesses that succeeded weren’t the ones that predicted the future perfectly. They were the ones that:
1. Saw directions of change
2. Made small bets across multiple possibilities
3. Adapted quickly when reality became clear
4. Didn’t get stuck defending old positions
That’s still the playbook. The technologies change, but the meta-strategy stays the same: be adaptive, stay curious, move fast.
Note: This talk was given while I was working in the agency world. These were my personal views on technology trends and business strategy. I’m now at Automattic as Web3 Lead, but the principles from this talk still inform how I think about technology adoption and business change.